Global warming is a cause for concern globally but as far as Iraq is concerned, it is also a national emergency for a country deemed to be the fifth on the list of countries that are most vulnerable to climate collapse.[1]  Moreover, unequal, localised water shortages in population centres, are a cause of both internal displacement and international migration. The general causes of climate change, such as improper exploitation of natural resources, are reinforced by local factors including geopolitics and economics.

The severe wave of rains last season, which covered most of the cities of Iraq, contributed partially to the recovery of the southern regions, especially the marshlands of southern Iraq, but unfortunately these rains were not enough to meet the needs of the country.

For several years, more than half of the tense conflicts and confrontations that arose in three of Iraq’s provinces, namely Basra, Dhi Qar and Maysan, were due to tribal disputes over the way water was divided between their respective areas, as well as being a protest against water shortages caused by the state’s inadequate response to the crisis. These incidents are but a small manifestation of the consequences of climate change in Iraq. Global warming is most noticeable in Iraq, where it has resulted in high temperatures alongside severe drought, water shortages and frequent sandstorms. This has led to internal as well as external migration with the displacement of some 55,290 thousand people from the southern regions of Iraq.[2]

The United Nations has ranked Iraq among the five most vulnerable countries in the world in terms of exposure to extreme temperatures and inadequate access to water and food.  The country’s temperatures are rising at a rate seven times faster than the global average, while annual rainfall is expected to drop   by 9 percent by 2050. Based on regional studies, in three to four decades time, living conditions will be very difficult in Iraq due to the increase in daily temperatures and the decrease in annual rainfall.[3] At the same time, the country is facing an annual population growth rate of 2.6 percent, that is twice the world average. It is estimated that Iraq’s population will reach 50 million by 2030 and 80 million by 2050.[4] This level of population growth, coupled with the widespread climate change that has so far resulted in large migrations from the countryside to the city, will put a lot of pressure on services and employment opportunities in urban areas, and create social unrest that may lead to increased rivalry and intra-tribal conflict, which is already a big part of Iraqi culture.

Given the rising temperatures and low rainfall, along with long-standing water disputes with upstream countries Turkey and Iran, the flow of water in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers is expected to decrease by 30 percent  and  60 percent respectively by the end of this century. The geopolitical fallout that has so far resulted from Turkey and Iran’s restrictions on the flow of water to Iraq could further increase tensions between these respective countries and in all likelihood, lead to potentially catastrophic conflicts between Iraq and Turkey, or between Iraq and Iran over water access.  In addition, an increase in climate change-induced poverty as a result of intensifying conflicts over scarce natural resources, water and agricultural land will contribute to migration, membership of terrorist groups, and the spread of armed extremist groups. In general, climate change migration creates urban slums and provides breeding grounds for militias and terrorist criminal networks. On the other hand, the extreme heat in Iraq, sometimes reaching more than 50 degrees Celsius, adds[5]  a load on the electricity grid that is currently unable to meet national demand, negatively impacting on the lives of millions of people in society.

About 70 percent of Iraq’s water resources flow from neighboring countries to the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, both of which flow through Turkey, with 80 percent of this water going to agriculture.  Turkish dams have reduced the flow of the  Euphrates river to neighbouring countries by 60 percent, leading to food and energy shortages.[6] Climate change  has also forced Turkey to conserve more of its water, which  has prompted Ankara since the nineties to implement major infrastructure projects on its waterways, including the controversial Anatolia project in the southeast of the country, which led to the construction of 22 dams being built on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. The construction of the Ilisu Dam on the Tigris River by Turkey could [7]  eventually lead to the loss of access to water for at least seven million Iraqi citizens.[8] Iraq fears that Ankara is planning to build yet another new dam on the same river.[9] Meanwhile, tensions between Turkey and Iraq over their shared water resources have exacerbated pre-existing ones between the two countries.

It should be noted that the Iraqi citizen consumes on average 392 litres per day, while the global average per capita is 200,^[10] which means that excessive consumption and lack of supply will be directly responsible for turmoil and instability in Iraq.

There are also new tensions between the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan region. On June 24, 2023, the groundbreaking ceremony of the Bastoura Dam in the governorate of Erbil took place without prior notice or warning.[11] This came in the context of escalating tensions between Erbil and Baghdad in the aftermath of the Federal Supreme Court’s decision that the independent export of oil and gas by the Kurdistan Regional Government was unconstitutional. In response to the federal government’s implementation the court’s decision, the KRG is expected to use its control over the upstream water flow as leverage in future negotiations.

The complex problem of Iraq’s climate crisis stems from years of mismanagement and ill-fated political and economic practices. However, Iraq’s vulnerability to climate change is not only the result of environmental factors, but also arises from the legacy of decades of war. The draining of the Mesopotamian marshes during the former regime which comprised a series of wetlands near Iraq’s southeastern border, is an environmental crime from which the country has yet to recover. These wetlands, once the largest wetlands in the Middle East and Western Eurasia, covering almost 20,000 square kilometres (7,700 square miles) of water and vegetation,[12] were destroyed by the former regime to displace the people of the southern regions. Unfortunately, the destruction of Iraq’s environment did not end with the collapse of Saddam’s regime. U.S. operations in Iraq hastened the destruction of water infrastructure by about 50 percent compared to pre-invasion performance levels. In recent years, ISIS has also armed its control over water resources by controlling dams and water supply systems, controlling and cutting off water from many cities and provinces, deliberately polluting water with crude oil and flooding tens of thousands of inhabited areas and causing serious environmental damage.[13]

The gap between water supply and demand is expected to increase from about 5 billion cubic meters to 11 billion cubic meters by 2035.[14] Water scarcity and inadequate water quality significantly reduce crop yields, threaten food security and health, and negatively affect GDP.[15]

All these factors indicate that climate change is linked to natural disasters, water and food shortages, energy transitions, human migration, conflict and cooperation. Adverse weather events are the latest addition to a long list of seemingly intractable problems in Iraq’s economic, demographic, security, governmental, and political fields that require integrated regional cooperation to deal with.

Climate friendly suggestions to reduce the risks of global warming in Iraq:

• Awareness and Education: Public awareness and education play an important role in combating global warming. Promote awareness of the impact of human activities on the climate and encourage personal and collective changes to reduce carbon emissions, such as reducing water and electricity consumption and using public transport.
• Combating desertification and mitigating the effects of drought, matters which hinge upon addressing the following issues: Increasing the productivity of land, water and the workforce through the optimal distribution of these resources; setting priorities for investment, preventing the degradation of pastoral lands and reversing the path of desertification.
• Improving energy efficiency: Significant progress can be made in reducing carbon dioxide emissions by improving energy efficiency in homes, buildings, factories and transportation; improving the insulation of buildings and using more efficient transportation.
• Increasing the use of renewable energies: The use of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, thermal energy and biohydrocarbons should be encouraged. Developing technology and providing financial incentives to promote the use of these sources will contribute to the reduction in carbon emissions.
• Control the use of fossil fuels: Dependence on fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas must be reduced, and the use of clean and alternative fuels encouraged and promoted. This may be achieved by tightening emissions laws and regulations, charging for carbon dioxide emissions and encouraging innovation in alternative technology.
• Protection of marshlands and other natural environments: The marshes have a positive impact on the environment, as they are considered to be a beneficial and plentiful source of food, from fish and poultry and fowl to agricultural produce which depend on the abundance and sustainability of water such as rice and sugar cane.
• Technological innovation: Research and technological innovations aimed at developing new solutions to mitigate the effects of global warming must be supported. For example, developing technology to purify the emissions of factories and vehicles, using storage technologies and utilizing carbon dioxide and developing clean and efficient energy systems.

 

• International cooperation: Solving the problem of global warming requires strong international cooperation. Iraq must work together with other countries to develop policies and agreements aimed at reducing emissions and promoting sustainability. This may be achieved through international summits and climate-related negotiations such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

 

[1] Iraq is the fifth most affected country by climate change. https://ina.iq/eng/14974-minister-of-environment-iraq-is-the-fifth-most-affected-country-by-climate-change.html

[2] DRIVERS OF CLIMATE-INDUCED DISPLACEMENT IN IRAQ: CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT KEY FINDINGS. https://iraqdtm.iom.int/files/Climate/202353458739_DTM_Climate_key_findings_en_v11.pdf

[3] The Severe Consequences of Climate Change in Iraq: A Case Study. https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=124494

[4] Iraq population projected to hit 50 million by 2030. https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/25597-Iraq-population-projected-to-hit-50-million-by-2030

 

[5] Water, Climate, and Environment: Beyond Iraq’s obvious conflicts. https://medium.com/@ecosystemforpeace/water-climate-and-environment-beyond-iraqs-obvious-conflicts-f2b268523181

[6] IRAQ’SCLIMATE CRISIS: A GEOPOLITICAL CONFLAGRATION IN THE MAKING. https://mecouncil.org/publication/iraqs-climate-crisis-a-geopolitical-conflagration-in-the-making/

[7]Up the creek  without a creek: What’s causing the Middle East water crisis? https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/29072018

[8] Climate change may devastate the Middle East. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/climate-change-may-devastate-the-middle-east-heres-how-governments-should-tackle-it/

[9] MOWR: New Turkish dam is more dangerous to Iraq than Iliso. https://ina.iq/eng/15347-mowr-new-turkish-dam-is-more-dangerous-to-iraq-than-iliso.html

[10] IRAQ’SCLIMATE CRISIS: A GEOPOLITICAL CONFLAGRATION IN THE MAKING. https://mecouncil.org/publication/iraqs-climate-crisis-a-geopolitical-conflagration-in-the-making/

[11] Prime Minister: KRG to build new dams across the https://gov.krd/english/government/the-prime-minister/activities/posts/2023/june/prime-minister-krg-to-build-new-dams-across-the-region/

[12] Iraq’s marshes are dying, and a civilisation with them. https://thecitadel.co/2023/07/13/iraqs-marshes-are-dying-and-a-civilisation-with-them/

[13] Iraq’s new geopolitics and the importance of regional engagement: A view from Brussels. https://www.mei.edu/publications/iraqs-new-geopolitics-and-importance-regional-engagement-view-brussels

[14] Climate Change Inaction threatens Iraq’s Social Stability and Long-Term Economic Development Prospects. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/11/09/climate-change-inaction-threatens-iraq-s-social-stability-and-long-term-economic-development-prospects

[15] The Geopolitical Impact of Climate Change in the Mediterranean Region: Climate Change as a Trigger of Conflict and Migration. https://www.iemed.org/publication/the-geopolitical-impact-of-climate-change-in-the-mediterranean-region-climate-change-as-a-trigger-of-conflict-and-migration/

 

HAYDER AL-KHAFAJI
Hayder Al-Khafaji is a researcher on Middle Eastern affairs with a specialist focus on Iraq-Iran relations. He holds a postgraduate certificate in Islamic Studies from Birkbeck College, University of London, and a master’s degree from Middlesex University where he is currently completing a Professional Doctorate in Muslim cultures.