Issue: In its sixteenth session on March 27, 2023, the Iraqi Council of Representatives voted on the third amendment to the Law on the Elections of the Council of Representatives and Provincial Councils, and Districts No. 12 of 2018, with the attendance of 218 deputies. This move faced opposition from smaller and emerging parties, independent deputies, and protest movements, which believe that the amendments to the law primarily serve establishment parties.

According to the new amendment to the law, each province will be treated as a single electoral district, replacing the previous multi-district system within each province, which divided Iraq into 83 electoral districts. This new amendment essentially reverts to the electoral law applied in the 2018 Council of Representatives elections.

On June 20, 2023, the Iraqi Council of Ministers set December 18 as the date for the upcoming elections for Provincial Councils. This decision aligns with the ministerial program presented by the government and approved by the Council of Representatives in October 2022. These elections are taking place after a decade, as the last elections for Provincial Councils were held in April 2013.

The upcoming Provincial Council elections will be conducted in 15 out of the 18 Iraqi provinces, as the Kurdistan Region provinces (Erbil, Dohuk, Sulaymaniyah) are not included. It’s worth noting that the Federal Supreme Court ruled on the unconstitutionality of Article 2 of Law No. 2 of 2019, which amends the Law of the Provinces of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq No. 3 of 2009, extending the terms of the Provincial Councils in the Region. This ruling was made on September 24, 2023, under Decision No. 124/Federal/2023.

For the upcoming Provincial Council elections, 6,414 candidates have registered to compete for 275 seats in the 15 provinces. Additionally, there are 10 seats allocated to minority components, with four for Christians, two for Yezidis, two for Sabaeans-Mandaeans, and one each for Shabak and Kaka’i.

The Independent High Electoral Commission has conducted three simulation exercises to date to ensure the functionality and integrity of the voting devices in preparation for the Provincial Council elections. These exercises aim to identify potential issues on election day and assess the speed and accuracy of the electoral devices.

Analysis: The previous Provincial Council elections were held in 2005, marking the first time Iraqis voted for provincial councils. These elections took place simultaneously with the Iraqi Council of Representatives elections, but they faced boycotts from various political and social forces amid challenging security conditions. The second elections were held in 2009 with a participation rate of 51%, covering 14 provinces but excluding the Kurdistan Region provinces and Kirkuk. The third and most recent Provincial Council elections were conducted in 2013, with a participation rate of 50%, and took place in 12 Iraqi provinces due to delays in the Kurdistan Region and the provinces of Kirkuk, Nineveh, and Anbar, caused by intense political and security tensions at that time.

Over the course of 10 years, the political landscape in Iraq has significantly transformed. The country experienced a severe security crisis with the emergence of terrorist organizations, namely Daesh, which controlled a large swath of Iraqi territory in June 2014. These changes reshaped political alliances and sidelined some political entities while giving rise to new and previously less politically active forces.

As for the results of last provincial elections, the State of Law Coalition, led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki secured the top position in seven provinces, followed by the Al-Muwatin Alliance, led by Ammar al-Hakim. The Al-Ahrar Alliance, under the leadership of Muqtada al-Sadr, ranked third.

 

Read more: Elections for Iraq’s Provincial Councils